Author: Stable Genius

I am the very model of a Stable Genius Liberal.

How to Convince Someone When Facts Fail

How to Convince Someone When Facts Fail

Why? “Because it threatens their worldview or self-concept.” For example, subjects were given fake newspaper articles that confirmed widespread misconceptions, such as that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. When subjects were then given a corrective article that WMD were never found, liberals who opposed the war accepted the new article and rejected the old, whereas conservatives who supported the war did the opposite … and more: they reported being even more convinced there were WMD after the correction, arguing that this only proved that Saddam Hussein hid or destroyed them. In fact, Nyhan and Reifler note, among many conservatives “the belief that Iraq possessed WMD immediately before the U.S. invasion persisted long after the Bush administration itself concluded otherwise.”

Donald Trump’s trade team has based their analysis on a remarkably silly mistake

Donald Trump’s trade team has based their analysis on a remarkably silly mistake

Reading this, you might wonder why it is that in the real world, economists actually do try to develop complex computer models of the economy. The answer is that the alternative method Ross and Navarro are proposing doesn’t even remotely work.

This is 101ism. The idea that a simple Econ-101 level understanding of a topic will just scale up to the macro level. The assumption that every market will work like a guns and butter chart from day three of Econ 101 is easily disproved, but this doesn’t stop 101ism. People like simple solutions. This DSGE charts are hard, have Greek letters and lots of math. 101ism sells.