President Obama is likely to suffer a pummeling defeat on Tuesday. But the road map for his recovery is pretty straightforward.
From The Next Two Years
Mr Brooks gives President Obama the typical bad advice people give the president on an off year election. When the GOP suffers a loss, the advice is that they turn to their core and rebuild. When the Dems suffer losses, the advice is to abandon the core in pursuit of some mythical center.
Did the GOP gain independents by being more centrist? Would anyone credibly look at the rise of the Tea Party in the past two years and and call that a centrist coalition designed to attract independents? Is the current slate of GOP candidates a portrait of centrism and moderation? Second, off-year elections are base elections with significantly reduced participation from independents. The 13 point GAP between registered voters and likely voters is the source of likely GOP victory. If more independents voted a GOP takeover of the house would be less likely.
My advice to Obama is to let the GOP be as extreme as possible. Let the GOP debate be about repealing the 14th amendment, investigating the non-existent black panther party and Roe V Wade. Let them overreach. Then count on more independents voting in 2012.